Trump Tariffs Trigger Layoffs and Economic Uncertainty

• Tariffs have led to a doubling of reported layoffs among supply chain managers compared to April.
• A majority of supply chain managers report a significant increase in costs due to tariffs, impacting budgets and business viability.
• Businesses face challenges in recovering lost productivity and administrative costs, even if tariffs are refunded.
• Economic outlook among supply chain professionals is mixed, with concerns about a potential recession looming.

Shikaka The Costly Tariffs Are Killing Us

Alrighty then, let's talk tariffs. Turns out, these Trump fellas are causing more headaches than a room full of wet Einhorns. These supply chain gurus, bless their cotton socks, are saying the tariffs are leading to layoffs. Layoffs, I tell ya! It's like someone's taken a perfectly good business and given it a haircut with a weed whacker. Double the percentage of supply chain managers (32%) are reporting layoffs as compared to April (16%), according to a new survey conducted by the Association for Supply Chain Management and CNBC.

Ace Detects a Hiring Recession

So, what's the dealio? Well, apparently, job growth last year was at its lowest outside of a recession since the early 2000s, according to the December jobs report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some are calling it a "hiring recession," typified by rising long-term unemployment and anemic job creation, which has stalled since April. Ouch. And the costs? Don't even get me started. A majority of these supply chain cats (65%) are reporting at least a 10-15% increase in costs. That's a major hit to the old pocketbook, folks. And don't even mention the implications of Howard Lutnick's Epstein Ties Trigger Calls for Resignation as that has implications too. We need to ensure that those in leadership are free from scandal so they can best manage during these times.

Lawsuits and Lost Time Can't Undo The Damage

Even if the Supreme Court swoops in like a majestic eagle and refunds all the tariffs, Eshkenazi says broader business impacts can't easily be reversed. "The Supreme Court decision may settle a lot of legal questions, but not a lot of the operational, the financial, and the human impact that we've already seen," he said. Sounds like someone's been reading my reports on 'When Nature Calls'.

Firefighting Mode Engaged

Investing is impacted because you have shorter planning cycles and time horizons, which make it harder for organizations to plan. Right now, you're in a constant firefighting mode as opposed to a planning mode. It's like trying to teach a penguin to fly in a wind tunnel.

Customs Bonds Dead Money For Businesses

And let's not forget the customs bonds! Apparently, these things are "dead money." Baby products company Lalo, which paid limited tariffs before the tariffs Trump issued under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, was required by U.S. Customs to put up collateral to secure customs bonds as a guarantee the company can pay the tariff bill. "We never had to do that before," said Michael Wieder, co-founder of Lalo. It's like paying for a movie ticket and then having to leave halfway through because your popcorn exploded.

Uncertainty and Recession Fears Loom

The economic outlook is as mixed as a bag of Halloween candy after a sugar rush. Over half (56%) are concerned about a recession, yet it is roughly a third of those respondents that have a neutral or negative view of the economy, causing what the ASCM says is a "fuzzy and uncertain picture of the U.S. economy." This disconnect reflects confusion and a lack of confidence for companies to plan for the future. Sounds like a recipe for economic disaster, folks. Just remember what I always say: "Love is a battlefield."